DRAM price ‘consolidation’ in December… Next year’s price forecast ‘in the fog’

DRAM memory semiconductor fixed transaction price maintained the level of the previous month for two consecutive months.

According to TrendForce, a market research firm, on the 31st, the average December fixed transaction price of DDR4 8GB (1GB*8), a general-purpose PC DRAM product, was $3.71, the same as the previous month.

The fixed transaction price is used for business-to-business transactions. The average DRAM price has remained flat for the second month in a row since it fell 9.51% from the previous month in October.

TrendForce recently predicted that the average selling price of DRAM in the first quarter of next year (January to March) will drop by 8-13% compared to the fourth quarter of this year (October to December). However, in this report, he explained that there is a lot of uncertainty about the price outlook.

TrendForce said, “In the PC DRAM market, suppliers and producers expect contract prices to drop below 10% in the first quarter of next year due to easing of the supply shortage of parts.” “We are betting on further price increases. Some buyers have decided to stock up on the spot market.”

According to TrendForce, the spot price of DDR4 8GB (1GB*8) 2666Mbps, a general-purpose DRAM product for PCs, has been on a downward trend since May, but turned to an upward trend starting on the 15th of this month and has risen by 12% until recently.

The spot price is mainly set when IT companies or PC parts wholesalers and retailers trade semiconductors with demand companies. It has the characteristic of reflecting the market situation in real time before the ‘fixed transaction’ price, which is the price of mass transaction between companies. The price outlook may also be skewed as the short-term demand situation is uncertain.

Meanwhile, NAND flash prices remain flat this month.

The fixed transaction price of MLC 128Gb (16G*8), a general-purpose NAND flash product used in memory cards and USBs, is $4.81 as of last month. After a 5.48% increase in July, this product maintained the same value for 6 months in a row.

Previously, TrendForce predicted that the average selling price (ASP) of NAND flash in the first quarter of next year (January to March) will fall by 10 to 15% compared to the fourth quarter of this year (October to December). However, as Samsung Electronics’ NAND factory in Xi’an, China, recently adjusted its production line due to city blockade, the possibility of supply and demand instability has been raised. Samsung Electronics is operating 3D NAND flash factories 1 and 2 in Xi’an, China. The production capacity of these factories accounts for 42.5% of Samsung’s total and 15.3% of the world’s total production.

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