Donald Trump has already started the electoral campaign for 2024

When Donald Trump appeared in the vip grandstand of Truist Park, the Atlanta Braves’ arena for Game 4 of the World Series of baseball on the eve of Halloween, a deafening applause was heard from the audience. Which turned into delirium when the former president, and his wife Melania at his side, performed, together with thousands of fans, in the “tomahawk chop”, the traditional gesture with the hand that mimics the Indian hatchet , considered by many to be racist as it would compare Native Americans to bloodthirsty savages.

On the one hand Melania, on the other Herschel Walker, the former star of the NFL (American football), the man chosen by the former president to regain in the Senate one of the two seats in Georgia lost in 2020. Baseball league Rob Manfred, New York Yankees president Randy Levine and Atlanta Braves CEO Terry McGuirk, who invited him despite some Republicans having turned up their noses.

A public return in grand style, that of the former president. Trump is preparing to take the field again and the numbers (polls plus funding) tell us that in three years he could have his historic revenge beating both incumbent president Joe Biden and (in case he doesn’t re-nominate) his deputy Kamala Harris. Since leaving the White House, The Donald has made no secret of being willing to do anything to get back there.

He has already set up his electoral campaign for 2024. Two main themes: leverage nostalgia for a strong economy like the pre-pandemic one (“when I was in the White House …”) and focus on resentment for the result of the 2020 elections that he (and all his fans) continue to call “stolen”, stolen. In an interview with Yahoo Finance on October 4, he answered the question of Adam Shapiro who asked him why to continue talking about rigged elections, when even the Republican leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell himself had argued that he did not they had been, “Mitch McConnell doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Where there has been false press coverage there have been tens of thousands of votes that are fraudulent or that could have been fraudulent. They changed the result ».

That all this is the exact opposite of reality and data confirmed by courts headed by Republican judges, some, ironically, nominated by Trump, does not care in the slightest to the still furious former president. For him and for the inner circle of loyalists he surrounds himself with (at the forefront Steve Bannon and the leaders of the conspiracy movement QAnon), there is a parallel reality, in which he is the intended victim, the hated establishment has renounced democracy and in three years the American people will do justice to everything and everyone.

History and reports tell us that he lost the popular vote in two consecutive presidential elections (the second time with a difference of 8 million votes); who led his party to a brutal defeat in the 2018 MidTerm election with the strongest US economy since the late 1990s; that he was the first president to have suffered two impeachments, the second time for inciting a crowd to invade and attack Congress to overturn a national election result; who now faces more criminal and civil risks than Richard Nixon before his resignation in 1974.

For The Donald (and perhaps half of Americans) it is as if all of this has not happened. The reconstruction of the Washington Post (October 31) on January 6, 2021 (assault on the Capitol) is exemplary. Trump, just returned to the White House after addressing the crowd at the Ellipse “turned on the huge flat screen TV and enjoyed the spectacle of the thousands of his supporters wearing his red caps, waving his blue flags and singing. his name”. The rioters overturned the security barricades. They bludgeoned the police. They climbed granite walls. And then they broke windows and doors “to break into the sacred building that was the seat of American democracy for more than two centuries.”

With the Capitol under siege, the president, glued to the television, did nothing: “For 187 minutes, Trump resisted pleas to intervene from advisers, allies and his eldest daughter, as well as from deputies and senators under attack. . Even as the violence on the Capitol escalated, even after Vice President Mike Pence, his family and hundreds of congressmen and their collaborators went into hiding to protect themselves, even after the first two people died and dozens more been attacked, Trump refused for more than three hours to tell his fans to stop. ” A reconstruction, that of the Post, that Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich has contested as “fake news”, arguing that the people who entered the Capitol that day were “agitators who had nothing to do with President Trump”.

Denying even the most obvious evidence remains the key political line of Trump and his men in what is in effect an electoral campaign that has already begun. What (little) remains of the moderate wing of the Grand Old Party is unable to express candidates capable of withstanding the no holds barred attacks coming from the Trumpist wing (and social networks). The commercial of Michele Fiore, a Trumpian candidate for governor in Nevada, is furious online. He gets out of the pick-up and with the pistol centers three bottles with the words “compulsory vaccines”, “anti-racist theories” and “electoral fraud”. He dominates in the polls. He is already at a big advantage in raising funds. Potential rivals swear they won’t run for presidency if Trump does.

In a hypothetical rematch in 2024, the former Republican president would exceed Biden (47 per cent to 46) today by a minimum advantage (47 per cent to 46), the poll’s margin of error is 2.7 per cent, but that no one in democratic camp he expected. With The Donald having everything to gain thanks to the new punitive electoral laws against minorities (Afro-Americans, Latinos) who are a fundamental part of the democratic electorate.

While Trump had low approval ratings during his presidency, it seems that voters see him in a different light after he leaves office. His approval rating in Iowa (State symbolic because that’s where the presidential primary begins) is higher than it had been during the entire course of his presidency (Des Moines Register poll) and the monthly survey by the Center for American Political Harvard Studies shows that at the beginning of this fall 2021, voters are “more attracted” to Trump than Biden. When respondents were asked who was a better president (between Trump and Biden), 51 percent chose The Donald and 49 percent chose the current president. Trump had more support as a “better president” among Grand Old Party voters than Biden won among Democrats, with independents equally divided. Opinions in line with the election results of Tuesday, November 2, which saw the Democrats lose after many years in Virginia, where Republican Glenn Youngkin was elected governor. A defeat that, projected on the Midterm elections, could lead to a loss of the majority in Congress. And the victories of the mayors, widely discounted, are not enough to console the Democrats. In New York, former African-American policeman Eric Adams won, and in Boston Michelle Wu, who set two records: first woman and first descendant of immigrants to be mayor of the city.

Three years after the Washington Post and The New York Times won Pulitzer Prizes for their inquiries into the 2016 Trump campaign and Putin’s Russia election interference, the former president still seeks his revenge against the “enemy press”. At the end of October he multiplied (with several letters to the board that manages the famous journalistic prize) his requests for the revocation of the Pulitzers to the two newspapers (“these Pulitzer Prizes for totally false investigations have become worthless and meaningless”). Even with FoxNews, the TV channel that in the four years of presidency has supported his propaganda (true and false), relations are no longer idyllic. Conservative all-news TV has been trying for months to credit Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as a moderate alternative to a now-taken-for-granted former president’s candidacy, but Rupert Murdoch’s network effort for 2024 doesn’t seem to be working better. of the similar one that the same television did in 2016 in favor of the then governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie.

In the recent history of the US presidential elections, the times in which a “loser”, a loser, has the possibility of a rematch within four years are rare. In the 1940s, the republican Thomas E. Dewey (defeated in 1944 by Franklin D. Roosevelt and in 1948 by Harry S. Truman), in the 1950s it was the turn of the democrat Adlai Stevenson (also defeated twice, 1952 and 1956, by Dwight “Ike” Eisenhower) and only Richard Nixon, beaten by John F. Kennedy in the first “televised” election of 1960, managed to enter the White House after eight years, in that 1968 marked by the assassination of the favorite Robert F. Kennedy. In the last century there have been losing presidents (Republican Herbert Hoover lost to Roosevelt in 1932, Jimmy Carter defeated by Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George Bush father ousted by Bill Clinton in 1992) but none after being in the White House for four years and having lost the next election he tried a third time. Donald J. Trump could also break this record.

Source: L'Espresso – News, inchieste e approfondimenti Espresso by

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