Critical agenda items of the new week!

In the new week, eyes were turned to the intense data agenda abroad, especially the labor market data to be announced in the USA. Domestically, the economic confidence index on Tuesday, the foreign trade balance on Wednesday and the manufacturing industry PMI on Thursday will be followed.

While Fed members tried to reduce the volatility and uncertainties regarding the future of monetary policy after the Fed’s meeting decisions on June 17, global stock markets were dominated by a buying-heavy trend.

While the weight of the statements regarding the reduction of asset purchases in verbal guidance was remarkable, Fed members emphasized that the communication regarding the reduction of asset purchases would be made in a transparent and detailed manner.

US President Joe Biden’s announcement that Democrat and Republican senators have reached an agreement for $ 1.2 trillion infrastructure investments strengthened the buying-heavy course of the global stock markets in the second half of the week.

However, while company balance sheets started to be announced in the USA and Europe, the stronger-than-expected balance sheet results of European companies drew attention.

On the other hand, after the global inflation concerns and the hawkish tone of the Fed, the tightening stance of the emerging country central banks’ monetary policies drew attention, while the Central Bank of Mexico increased the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent during the week.

The US 10-year bond yield, after falling to 1.35 percent during the week, the lowest level since the week of February 22, rose to 1.55 percent due to the increasing selling pressure, ending the week with an increase of approximately 11 basis points.

The US 2-year bond yield, on the other hand, increased to 0.2780 percent for the second week in a row, while the dollar index closed the week with a decrease of 0.5 percent from 91.9, after four consecutive weeks of upward trend.

The ounce price of gold and the pound of copper healed their wounds this week, albeit partially. Ending the three-week decline streak, the price of gold rose 0.74 percent to $1,778 per ounce, while copper rose 1.32 percent to $4.24 per pound.

Brent oil carried its upward trend for the fifth week in a row before the global economic recovery, the decrease in oil stocks in the USA and the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC group consisting of some non-OPEC producer countries to be held on July 1. The barrel price of Brent oil, which saw its highest level since the week of April 22, 2019 with $ 75.3, completed the week at $ 75.2 with an increase of 3.5 percent.

AFTER FED’S ORDINARY GUIDANCE, NEW YORK EXCHANGE BREAK A RECORD

The risk appetite, which increased partially with the statements of the Fed officials, was further strengthened with the Fed’s announcement that 23 banks had completed the stress test and that it would lift the restrictions imposed due to the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) outbreak on June 30.

The 23 largest US banks, which have been subjected to the “stress test”, have capital criteria to continue lending to households and companies in the event of a severe economic recession, the Fed said in a statement.

Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles, whose views were included in the statement, stated that last year the bank conducted three stress tests under several different theoretically severe recession conditions. “All of these tests confirm that the banking system is strongly positioned to support the ongoing economic recovery.” made its assessment.

On the other hand, the data to be announced on the labor market in the week of 28 June was the focus of investors.

Analysts reported that the fact that the labor market is far from pre-Kovid-19 outbreak levels has pushed the Fed into a corner, especially in terms of starting to reduce asset purchases.

In the presentation of Fed Chairman Powell in the House of Representatives, he was asked why people are still reluctant to work, and Powell said that this situation is temporary and that he thinks the number of vacant jobs will decrease significantly in the future.

Analysts stated that improvements in labor force data may affect the dovish attitudes of Fed members, which may bring volatility in asset pricing.

On the other hand, while the US economy grew by 6.4 percent in the first quarter of the year, the personal consumption expenditures index, which the Fed took into account in measuring inflation, increased by 3.9 percent on an annual basis, in line with expectations.

In the New York stock market, which followed a buying-heavy course with these developments, the S&P 500 index rose 2.74 percent and the Nasdaq index rose 2.35 percent on a weekly basis, to a weekly closing record, while the Dow Jones index rose 3.44 percent.

In the data calendar of the week starting with June 28, Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index on Monday, ADP employment report and pending home sales on Wednesday, manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and ISM manufacturing industry PMI and non-farm employment, unemployment rate, foreign trade balance factory on Thursday. orders and durable goods orders will be followed. In addition, the statements of Fed members throughout the week are expected to be in the focus of investors.

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS IN EUROPE FILED THE UPWARD MOVEMENT IN EXCHANGES

While the news flow from the European Union (EU) Leaders’ Summit and the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision were the important topics of the last week, the intense data calendar in Europe and the speeches of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be the focus of the agenda next week. .

While important decisions regarding neighboring countries were taken at the EU Leaders’ Summit, according to the decision taken at the Summit, the EU extended the duration of the economic sanctions it imposed on Russia for another 6 months on the grounds that it destabilized Ukraine.

While the BoE did not change the policy rate during the week, it was stated in the statement made by the bank that 875 billion pounds of the bond buying program will continue to consist of bond purchases and 20 billion pounds of corporate bonds.

In the week when the developments regarding financial policies were also experienced, the Council of Ministers in Germany approved the 2022 federal budget draft, which envisages new borrowing of approximately 100 billion euros to strengthen the economic recovery after the Kovid-19 epidemic. On the other hand, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said during the week, “We will have to spend huge sums over the next few years.” warned.

Analysts emphasized that the “V”-shaped recovery in company balance sheets announced in Europe with the said development is one of the factors supporting the stock markets.

Leading manufacturing industry and service sector PMI data released during the week also pointed out that the economic recovery continues rapidly throughout the region.

On the other hand, analysts stated that the decisions taken at the EU Leaders’ Summit increased the risk perception and reported that the upward movement in the stock markets was eroded.

With these developments, the 10-year bond yields of Germany, France, Italy and Spain carried their upward trend for the second week in a row, while the euro/dollar parity ended the three-week downward trend and closed the week with an increase of 0.61 percent at 1.1936.

While the European stock markets followed a limited buying weighted course this week, the DAX index in Germany was 1.04 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK was 1.69 percent, the CAC 40 index in France was 0.82 percent and the MIB index in Italy on a weekly basis. The 30 index gained 0.15 percent.

Next week; On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index in the Euro Area and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Germany, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the UK on Wednesday, the unemployment in Germany and the estimated CPI in the Euro Area, the manufacturing industry PMI in the region on Thursday, and The unemployment rate in the Eurozone and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the Eurozone on Friday and the speech of ECB President Lagarde will be followed.

AS MARKETS WOUNDED, SOUTH KOREA BREAK A RECORD

While Asian stock markets followed a buying-heavy trend parallel to the global stock markets this week, Chinese stock markets ended their three-week downward trend.

At the monetary policy board meeting held within the week, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left the 1-year loan interest rate at 3.85 percent and the 5-year loan interest rate at 4.65 percent.

In addition, while the liquidity given to the market by PBoC repo auctions increased by 20 billion yuan, it was seen that the markets welcomed the increase in liquidity.

On the other hand, the news flow that the USA may impose restrictions on solar energy panels produced in some regions of China, eroded the upward movements of the stock markets.

Tokyo CPI data announced in Japan during the week did not show any change on a monthly and annual basis, while manufacturing industry and composite PMI decreased to 51.5 and 47.8, respectively. The service sector PMI rose to 47.2.

With these developments, the Shanghai composite index gained 2.34 percent on a weekly basis in China, the Nikkei 225 index gained 0.35 percent in Japan and the Kospi index in South Korea gained 1.07 percent, while the South Korean stock market closed a record.

The data calendar for the week, which started with June 28, includes unemployment rate and retail sales in Japan on Tuesday, industrial production in Japan on Wednesday and manufacturing industry PMI data in China on Thursday.

RISES MET WITH SALES IN BORSA ISTANBUL

While the data agenda was calm in the domestic markets this week, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) published in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPK) summary, “The tight monetary stance serves as an important buffer against external and temporary volatility in the context of inflation expectations, pricing behavior and financial market developments. will see.” expression was used.

In the summary, it was also stated that inflation is expected to follow a volatile course in the short term due to various factors on the supply and demand side, primarily commodity prices.

On the other hand, as Turkey started to test the first application of the third phase of the domestic vaccine on volunteers, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that the name of the domestic Kovid-19 vaccine was “TURKOVAC”.

In the week when Kovid-19 vaccination studies intensified, it was announced by the Ministry of Health that those over the age of 18 could receive the first dose of Kovid-19 vaccine.

While the total number of vaccines across the country approached 47 million, the number of people who received the first dose of vaccine exceeded 31.7 million, and the number of people who received the second dose of vaccine exceeded 14.7 million.

Analysts stated that despite these developments, the selling pressure from the 1.420 levels in Borsa Istanbul could not be broken and the volatility increased with the approaching expiration date of the June futures index contract in the Futures and Options Market (VIOP). Thus, the BIST 100 index finished the week at 1,391.86 points with an increase of 0.06 percent.

Analysts said that if the 1.390 level in the BIST 100 index is technically broken down, 1.377 and 1.330 levels may come to the fore, and said that 1.420 and 1.470 points are important resistance.

Dollar/TL also finished the week at 8.7932 with an increase of 0.59 percent after seeing the all-time peak of 8.8012 with the Fed partially faltering and ongoing inflationary pressures.

During the week of June 24, domestic economic confidence index on Tuesday, foreign trade balance on Wednesday and manufacturing industry PMI data on Thursday will be followed.


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Source: bigpara- GÜNDEM by bigpara.hurriyet.com.tr.

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