Construction, Cresme: investments of 232 billion euros in 2022, 91 more than in 2019

06/12/2022 – In 2022, the construction sector returned to the levels of 2007 net of inflation; a result that in 2019 was unthinkable.

And when looking at current rather than deflated values, the construction investments in 2019 they were worth 141 billion euros, in 2022, 232 billion, 91 billion more. The constructions of 2022, in fact, cost 15/20% more than they cost in 2019 according to official sources, il 25/30% according to Cresme analyses.

The data comes from the XXXIII economic and forecast report ‘The construction market 2023’ prepared by Cremation and presented last Friday.

Quantity and price determined two exceptional years of growth of buildings with rates from the 60s, driven by tax incentives for restructuring and public works – explains Cresme.

Ma new residential construction has also grown and non-residential ones. And the real estate market has also grown, too trades of homes have reached, and in different realities exceeded, the levels of 2006-2007.

Inflation then began to take its toll even on house prices, but less than on construction prices, with the exception of some national realities, such as Milan, where the growth spiral has already stopped new investments pending. High inflation has begun to affect demand behavior, also because wages and salaries are not adjusted.

The new phase we are experiencing – adds Cresme – brings the topic of inflation and interest rates back to the market: what will happen in the next two years and how this affects the construction and real estate market is another key issue to address.

Construction, Cresme: boom in 2021-2022

Over the past couple of years the construction market has been powered by significant private resources (the savings accumulated by households and businesses both in 2020 and 2021) it’s yes very important public resources: the exceptional season of incentives and the PNRRbut also from allocations for public works which come from 2014/2015 and which have become job awards starting from 2021, have grown the market in two years with a acceleration from developing country.

In retraining and in awarding of tenders for public works the growth was by 45/50% in just one year. You entered one phase of excessesan unreasonable stage with respect to the relationship between supply and demand.

Construction, Cresme: prospects for the next few years

In the redevelopment market the reversal is expected for 2023. It will be slower than it should be because 2022 will not be enough to cover the wave of demand. The incentives will be reduced and they will stop the main engine that has driven the buildings.

But in 2023, in Maywhen the 2022 budgets are presented, we will also deal with the accumulated tax credits and with the sealing risks of many operators.

But not only, strong GDP growth in 2021 and 2022 it has deep roots in construction and, as can be demonstrated, in the superbonus.

The slowdown in incentives will slow down the GDPand how this market will stop and how it will continue is one of the great key themes of the Cresme Report.

Likewise the world of public works enters the heart of an exceptional challenge, is an implementation challenge, which attempts to redesign the country’s infrastructural competitiveness, which seeks to lay the foundations for a new modernization process. The question is: will you be able to do it? Are the companies there? Are the projects ready?

It’s still: what will happen in the next few years for the new residential production? And for the real estate market? And what will i large international investors? According to Cresme, construction is entering a phase in which not all the engines will pull growth, but certainly some sectors will continue to grow and others will stop.

It outlines a new cyclical phasewhich has two key themes: what will happen in the 2023-2024 and what will happen after 2026-2027. In this new scenario, in any case the productivity of the construction sector will be forced to change. From this point of view the next ten years will be decisive years.

Source: Le ultime news dal mondo dell'edilizia by

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