complete recovery of air traffic only in 2024? – Travel Magazine

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced recently that does not expect the aviation industry to recover from the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic pre 2024. The entire following period is defined as a “recovery period”, ie a return to the level of turnover and income in 2019. THERE IT IS previously predicted a recovery by 2023, but new events clearly dissuaded her and “destroyed” her optimism.

“Until the vaccine comes along, recovery really depends on how many countries manage to control the virus,” said Brian Pearce, IATA’s chief economist. “What we’ve seen so far is not the kind of progress we need.”

New cases of infection in Asia

Where did the biggest problem arise?

Judging by IATA officials, the biggest problem is that people do not want to travel. Actually, there is very little interest in air travel. Because, although there is a desire to visit friends and relatives, as well as tourist trips, consumer confidence is very weak due to rising unemployment, but also the risk of infection.

On the other side, business trips are stopped, because companies are trying to reduce costs and adapt to remote meetings. This will only slow down the recovery, according to a statement from IATA.

“Corporate budgets are expected to be very limited as companies remain under financial pressure, even as the economy improves.”

The association said the figures show that the link between GDP growth and business travel is devastating, as videoconferencing makes face-to-face meetings less necessary.

Testing at airports

The revised decision marks the culmination of a new wave of airline pessimism about travel recovery

In the first months of the pandemic most airlines have forecast a two- and three-year recovery timeframe. The exception was Sothwest Airplines CEO Gary Kelly, who compiled a five-year flight schedule in April.

“Based on experience, there is a very long recovery period for companies in a recessionary environment,” Kelly said at the outset, reacting very pessimistically. Industry analysts also agreed with him, believing that they would many more years pass until complete recovery. Recall that demand for air travel fell in the Asian region in mid-January, and in the rest of the world in mid-March.

“We are increasingly confident that the recovery of the aviation industry will be a multi-year affair,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker in early April, noting that it would cause mass layoffs and a reduction in the fleet.

Other analysts agree. Most expect the aviation industry to return to 2019 levels in some two to five years. They also think they will revenues in 2021 will be equal to those in 2016.

The airlines themselves now agree with them: the road to “normal” will not only be difficult, but a long process.

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Source: Travel Magazine by

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