Phillip Securities pointed out the condition of Thai stocks next week. The market bounced, opened the country on Nov. 1 – worried about the Fed’s QE reduction. Index swings 1,600-1,650 points. Opportunity to gradually accumulate around the support area. Recommend “ADVANC-CRC”. Assess QE affects the Thai stock market to decline not as severely as in 2013 as foreign holdings of Thai stocks are only 26% of the total market capitalization. If the opening of the country is successful, the recovery of tourism and service sectors will stimulate the GDP of Thailand in 2021, expanding by at least 0.8-1%.
On October 31, 2021, Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited reported the Thai stock market outlook next week (1-5 Nov. 21) that the SET Index is expected to swing downward. Frame between 1600-1,650 points, may decline in response to external factors announced by the US Federal Reserve (FED) QE Tapering, but will be driven by the opening of the country on 1 Nov. support to speculate on stocks with unique positive factors
In this regard, foreign tourists in low-risk countries who have received the full dose of vaccination can travel to Thailand without quarantine. It was a challenge and hope at the same time. Because many countries that use co-existence policies with Covid-19 and open their countries to foreign tourists, the number of infected people has accelerated. But if the full dose of vaccination exceeds 70% of the area already. The morbidity or mortality rate is reduced. enabling further measures to be taken Don’t have to go back to lockdown
and if successful, can proceed to the next phase The recovery of tourism and service sectors will stimulate the GDP of Thailand in 2021, expanding by at least 0.8-1%.
However, we have to wait to see the response from foreign tourists whether they come to Thailand or not due to the origin of strict health control measures and travel in and out.
For the 7th Fed FOMC meeting on 2-3 Nov. 21, the policy rate is expected to remain unchanged, but the Fed is expected to announce a formal QE tapering of $15,000 per month until the end of the period. the middle of next year From the statistics of QE in 2013, the return on the Thai stock market and EM stock market is lower than the DM side.
But this time, the Thai stock market is expected to decline not as severely. This is because foreign holdings in Thai stocks are only 26% of total market capitalization from 33% in 2013, but will have to wait to see the direction of the Fed’s interest rate hike after investors began to estimate that inflation has accelerated more intensely. The Fed is expected to raise the policy rate twice next year during July and December to the range of 0.5-0.75%, pushing foreign investment out of the EM stock market.
For another important point 1. Follow the announcement of earnings in the 3rd quarter of the year. Communication group 2. Bank of England (BOE) meeting 3. OPEC meeting 4. Announcing the PMI numbers of the US and Chinese manufacturing sectors. 5. US employment numbers
Recommends ADVANC as a safe-haven amid high market volatility following the Nov Fed meeting, expecting future benefits from GULF and INTUCH partnership.
and CRC shares benefited from the opening of the country on November 1 and the Office of the BOE reduced the provinces, the number of dark red areas.
Read the original news: Check the Thai stock market next week. Bounce to open the country – worry about the Fed reducing the QE
Source: ประชาชาติธุรกิจ by www.prachachat.net.
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