Católica forecasts GDP growth of 4.3% in 2022, below the estimate of the OE – Conjuntura


Economists at Católica have revised downwards the estimate for the growth of the Portuguese economy in 2022 and now expect GDP to increase by 4.3%, well below the forecast inscribed by the Government in the State Budget (OE) proposal.

The forecast nucleus of Católica de Lisboa (NECEP) is the most pessimistic, among several entities that estimate the evolution of the country’s economy, for the recovery of GDP next year. But the difference is considerable compared to the forecast of the Ministry of Finance, which designed a State Budget based on economic growth of 5.5% in 2022.

NECEP explains that the economic growth of 2022 “will also reflect a notable base effect due to the weak first quarter of the current year”, and that it ended up influencing the recovery of the whole of 2021.

And in that sense, economists are also less optimistic about 2021. They now expect the economy to grow 3.7%, 0.2 percentage points less than previously forecast. This value is also substantially below that estimated by the Government for this year (4.8%).

Third trimester was least affected by the pandemic

Even so, the “summer quarter was the least affected so far by restrictions on economic and social activity in the context of combating the pandemic”. In this sense, economists estimate that GDP in the third quarter has advanced 1.5% on a quarter-on-quarter basis and 2.9% year-on-year. “The resumption of tourism and international travel was important, but the level of activity is still far below normal,” they point out.

Therefore, the rest of the year should be influenced “by the combined effect of the intensity of restrictions on economic activity in Portugal and Europe, but also by the international economy with signs of a slowdown coming from the United States, China and the Eurozone”, he admits the NECEP.


Source: Jornal de Negócios by www.jornaldenegocios.pt.

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