The elections this Sunday they are a test for Spanish politics. Whatever happens, the results will condition the entire country. What the Catalans vote will mark the government’s game of alliances and will determine the future not only of the coalition, but also of the PP and Vox. Married the ‘sorpasso’ is played.
The ballot boxes of the more than 2,500 polling stations that will open at 9 a.m. will also test the strength of the trial after almost a decade of secessionist defiance. The cause It is subjected to examination and its result will mark the future of the independence movement: either unilateralism or pact.
The elections also come in the middle of a pandemic that has changed everything and left tens of thousands of deaths. No one can gauge the effect that the coronavirus will have on the ballot. Nor the effect of the silver lining that opens the imminent mass vaccination and that will allow the nightmare of covid-19 to dream in another way.
The electoral machines of the parties have tried until the last moment to predict whether the Catalans will allow themselves to be carried away again when voting for the romanticism of independence or for the brainy criticism of the management of an epidemic that only in Catalonia has harmed the life of almost 10,000 people.
The result is anyone’s guess, but the latest polls give some clues. ERC, hostage to a last-minute agreement between pro-independence parties not to agree with Salvador Illa’s PSC, seems to have the key to the new Government.
ERC holds the key to the future government
The Republicans arrive very evenly matched with the Socialists, blessed with the effect of Illa’s candidacy, and with their great rivals from Together, intellectual authors of the sanitary cordon to the former Minister of Health. All a trick to Pere Aragonès and to the hope of the Government of Pedro Sánchez to align Moncloa and Palau de la Generalitat to put the legislature on track. If the independence bloc adds up, it is very likely that a victory for the PSC will be sterile, as happened to Cs three years ago.
Illa will be worth little victory if she cannot support him, in some way, in ERC, an important part of the majority of the coalition in Madrid, but also a great rival this 14F because both want to win the same ideological vote.
Those of Oriol Junqueras, however, have sworn and perjured that they will not do president to the socialist, contrary to what Laura Borràs insinuates, focused on capturing the most staunch pro-independence vote and damaging ERC in order to gain secessionist hegemony. In these elections there are two other great fights beyond the struggle between socialists and republicans: between partners of Govern and between PP and Vox.
The pro-independence parties have made an effort to put on record that their struggle to lead the pro-independence bloc in seats and votes is ruthless. Beyond the “all against Illa” play on paper, Borràs’ strategy at the helm of Junts has been based on sowing doubts about his partner’s commitment to the cause for the republic.
And those on the right, with PP and Cs at the head, in launching the suspicion, without providing any proof, that the socialist candidate had already been vaccinated by skipping the protocol that he himself helped establish. For the histrionics of the television debates, there is the demand of Carlos Carrizosa and Alejandro Fernández to claim the mask from Illa for having refused to be tested for the coronavirus.
The other great test of these elections is Pablo Casado. The leader of the PP has a problem, because the media explosion of Luis Bárcenas’ stellar return to the bench this week has shattered Alejandro Fernández’s expectations of doubling his seats and avoiding the ‘souprsso’ of the extreme right.
Lowering the four seats that the PP now has in the Parliament It would be a setback that would leave Casado’s leadership very affected and that would make an important part of his party look to barons with an absolute majority, such as Alberto Núñez Feijóo, to take over the reins.
If that happens and Vox surpasses the PP, Santiago Abascal will not be able to avoid outlining a vengeful smile after basing his campaign on melee, amid showers of insults and objects, with the most radical independence movement.
The rarest electoral campaign in memory, plagued by ‘telematisms’, has barely pivoted on important issues. Almost nothing has been said about taxation, a key issue in the coming years due to the drunken public debt that the pandemic is generating in the accounts of public administrations, busy saving the self-employed and companies from bankruptcy thanks to the Bank’s free bar Central European.
And little or nothing has been said about the challenges that an exhausted society will face after the covid-19, such as, for example, the model of care for the elderly at the dawn of retirement. baby boom, the largest generation in recent history.
Vote what Catalonia votes, the national hangover on Monday is assured.
Source: HuffPost Spain for Athena2 by www.huffingtonpost.es.
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