The record-breaking heat waves that have dried up the planet in recent months are just a glimpse of what will eventually be the norm for climate.
A team of researchers from Harvard and the University of Washington set out to determine what global temperatures might look like by 2100, by cross-referencing past climate data with future projections for population and economic growth and carbon emissions. .
According to their calculations, published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, even if all countries in the world kept the global temperature increase to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels – which is considered as one of the most optimistic scenarios to date – the global heat index would reach dangerous levels. For the US National Weather Service (NWS), un heat index of 39.4°C is considered “dangerous” for the human bodyand an index of 51°C as “extremely dangerous”.
In less than a century, dangerous weather events could occur three to ten times more often than they do now in Western Europe, the United States, China and Japan.
In the majority of tropical and subtropical regions, up to half the days of the year could be “dangerously hot”, and the threshold for the “extremely dangerous” heat index should be exceeded more than fifteen days per year.
“For the billions of people who will live in the Global South at the end of the century, it is difficult to find words, because this is unprecedented”said Lucas Vargas Zeppetelloone of the main authors of the study, a researcher in climatology. “We don’t know what happens when populations are exposed to these heat index levels with this level of regularity”he adds.
While the magnitude of future heat waves depends heavily on the ability of all global emitters to reduce their carbon emissions, it is certain that extreme weather events will be more frequent in the coming decades.
Source: Slate.fr by www.slate.fr.
*The article has been translated based on the content of Slate.fr by www.slate.fr. If there is any problem regarding the content, copyright, please leave a report below the article. We will try to process as quickly as possible to protect the rights of the author. Thank you very much!
*We just want readers to access information more quickly and easily with other multilingual content, instead of information only available in a certain language.
*We always respect the copyright of the content of the author and always include the original link of the source article.If the author disagrees, just leave the report below the article, the article will be edited or deleted at the request of the author. Thanks very much! Best regards!