ATTENTION: Misleading numbers. The virus does not spread mainly among those vaccinated, says the mathematician

Recently, ITV reporter Robert Peston, who was also fully vaccinated, also became infected with coronavirus, which led him to start investigating how common this situation is, the author of the commentary outlines. He adds that Peston subsequently published a text with a very alarming headline The data show a high number of infections among fully vaccinated between the ages of 40 and 79 years.

The tabloid daily Daily Express brought an even sharper headline – Peston peered under the hood of covid horror, infections fully vaccinated between the ages of 40 and 79 flying upward -, points out the expert. He asks if this is really the case.

Petson’s findings are based on newly published data from the Public Health Authority (PHE), which summarizes the numbers of new infections, acute hospitalizations and deaths in the above period between fully and partially vaccinated and unvaccinated, Angus explains. He admits that these numbers provide us with clear guidance on the effectiveness of vaccines in protecting against coronavirus infection or the severe course of covid-19 in those who unfortunately catch the virus.

Outwardly, the numbers of cases look worryingAt the same time, he states that a mere look at raw numbers obscures the fact that 73% of adults in England are already fully vaccinated, so it makes much more sense to look at the rate of the disease, the proportion of all unvaccinated and all fully vaccinated who were tested positive.

Pestona is concerned that even with such an approach, the proportion of those tested positive among those vaccinated in the 40-79 age group is higher than that of the unvaccinated, the expert said. He therefore asks whether this means that the delta variant can overcome the protection that vaccines provide to elderly vaccinees. According to him, the answer is no.

We don’t know how big a group we work with

A key factor that Peston neglected in his analysis is the need to know the exact numbers of individuals in the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, the mathematician explains. He notes that determining the number of fully vaccinated is relatively easy, as we know how many doses of vaccines have been given, but finding the exact number of unvaccinated is surprisingly difficult.

According to the expert, the best way is to deduct the number of vaccinated from the total population, but the problem is that it is not clear how many people live in England.

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The figures can be found from two main sources, the British Statistical Office and the headquarters of the British vaccination campaign, the author of the commentary outlines. He adds that the former are based on the 2011 census, adjusted for recorded deaths, newborns and presumed migration, while the latter are based on medical records.

Unfortunately, these numbers do not agree, Angus points out. He points out that statistics show 44.5 million adults, but the vaccination campaign 49.5 million adults.

Both numbers are certainly wrong, at least in part“The mathematician continues. According to him, the statistics from the middle of 2020 did not count on high mortality during the pandemic, while the vaccination campaign only counts medical records and does not find out if they do not belong to the same individuals who changed doctors to have more records. the impact of Brexit and the pandemic on migration, Angus said.

According to the mathematician, the difference is important, because with high vaccinations, we lose a clear idea of ​​the number of unvaccinated. If 39 million adults in Britain received at least one dose of the vaccine, then, according to the vaccination campaign, 10 million would remain unvaccinated, but according to the statistical office, only 5 million, or half less, the expert explains. He adds that the PHE numbers referenced by Peston are based on vaccination campaign data.

If we take into account the numbers of the British Statistical Office, then the concerns raised by Peston disappear, as the proportion of diseases among fully vaccinated people under the age of 80 will be significantly lower than for unvaccinated people, the author of the commentary concludes. He points out that it is easier for PHE to work with vaccination campaign data, but according to most observers, the statistical office’s estimates are more accurate.

As a result, the actual communication of this data is that full vaccination is very likely to reduce the chance of catching covid, “writes Angus. More importantly, he considers statistics from the same PHE report, which show that the numbers of acute hospitalizations and deaths in fully vaccinated people across the age groups are significantly lower than in unvaccinated people.

The rapid development of several highly effective vaccines against covid-19 is described by a mathematician as one of the greatest achievements in the modern era of science. Although questions arise about the decline in efficacy over time and the need for third doses, the fact that it is not clear how many people England actually have should not overshadow that vaccination is still working, Angus concludes.

Source: EuroZprá by

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