Artificial intelligence predicts Qatar’s World Cup winner will be Brazil

Brazil is predicted to be the team with the highest probability of winning the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.

The UK’s Alan Turing Institute, which studies artificial intelligence (AI), announced on the 22nd (Korean time) that after running 100,000 simulations, Brazil won 25,000 times and took first place with 25% of the total.

The Alan Turing Institute is a British mathematician, psychologist, and a research institute named after Alan Turing, who is regarded as the father of modern computer science. Turing created a machine that cracked the Enigma code of the Nazi German army during World War II, and later proposed the Turing test, a test to determine whether an AI has intelligence based on how similar it can communicate to humans. Turing is the protagonist of the movie ‘The Imitation Game’ starring Benedict Cumberbatch.

The Alan Turing Institute used AIrsenal, a machine learning manager algorithm for the fantasy Premier League, and applied Dixon & Coles, a football prediction model conceived in 1997, and ran 100,000 simulations. In addition, the Alan Turing Institute has used the results of A-matches around the world since the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup as data, and weighted them by dividing them into World Cups, continental tournaments, regional qualifiers, and friendly evaluation matches. Along with this, the FIFA ranking was also applied to the model.

As a result, Brazil won over 25,000 times, with the highest probability of 25%. It was followed by Belgium, Argentina, France and England from 2nd to 5th. Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal and Croatia were also ranked 6th to 10th.

However, the Alan Turing Institute explained that it did not apply other variables such as the performances of players participating in the Qatar World Cup, penalty kicks, stadium location, and weather.

Although there were outstanding players such as Diego Maradona at the 1986 World Cup in Mexico, Zinedine Zidane at the 1998 World Cup in France, and Ronaldo at the 2002 World Cup in Korea and Japan, it is unknown which player will grow into a special star in this tournament.

In addition, the Alan Turing Institute explains that penalty kicks, which have a great influence on win or loss, but are virtually impossible to predict at what point and in what situation, are also excluded from variables because it is difficult to include them in the simulation results and it is impossible to match the success of the penalty kick.

The results of the Alan Turing Institute prove that Brazil, Belgium, and Argentina are strong teams with high chances of winning.

However, just as no one could have predicted Argentina losing 1-2 in their first match in the group stage against Saudi Arabia, this prediction should be seen as fun.


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