another factor pointing to the strong recovery

The state has canceled the last debt auction that I had programmed for this 2021 that is already over. After the EU inject into our economy 10,000 million euros from the ‘Next Generation’ funds, Vice President Calviño announced that what has been there is enough.

Thus, Spain this year has obtained 75,000 million from the markets in debt, 25% less than estimated at the beginning of 2021. Something that the Executive celebrates as a “sign of strength” of our economy. While hehe GDP data do not follow the same paths, at least on paper.

What does this mean? Well, that the country is financing itself from the other side or that it is managing to fill its coffers in another way. But it also leaves us with another question … is GDP growing as slowly as it is painted?

Taxes on the rise

If the Executive has decided to dispense with the last auction of the year, it must have its reasons. As we said, must be obtaining money for the system in other ways. And taxation seems to be one of the keys.

According to the latest available data, corresponding to the period from January to October of this year, more taxes have been collected than in the same period of 2019, the exercise that serves as a mirror for recovery, because in 2020 we all know what there was.

Tax revenues are 3.6% higher in these three quarters than the same period in 2019, that is, about 26,000 million more. A very positive figure, because that year a record collection was achieved.

But this is not because taxes have risen too strongly. It’s true that some sections of personal income tax have been increased (the highest), but on the other hand, the VAT on electricity has been temporarily suspended, just when the most could be collected from there due to the rise in prices.

Therefore, the Executive I would be collecting more for a better economic progress, added to better citizen compliance, since last year many postponements were granted due to the pandemic. In other words, citizens are in a better disposition to pay taxes. And this cannot be for any other reason than the good economic performance.

So what about GDP?

All this contrasts with the poor performance of GDP. In the third trimester grew by 2%, below the Eurozone average, which was 2.2%, according to Eurostat.

This data is added to the jug of cold water from the OECD to cut Spain’s growth by two points in 2021, from 6.8% initially estimated to 4.5% last. In 2022 it also cooled down expectations, going from 6.6% to 5.5% growth.

But the most shocking thing is that we are the second EU country that creates the most jobs, with a rise in the employment rate of 2.6% in the third quarter, compared to 0.9% in the Euro zone.

Then, what’s going on? Is something being measured wrong? Is the whole truth being told? The economic experts these questions are already being asked, because with the data in hand, the accounts do not add up.

Therefore, we will be attentive to the next data, which may give us the explanation we are looking for for Spain’s weak GDP. At least on paper.


Source: El Blog Salmón by www.elblogsalmon.com.

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