All eyes will be on the Central Bank’s interest rate decision in the new week

Next week, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT), while the focus of the domestic market interest rate decision, followed by calendar data will be focused abroad.

In global markets this week, developments regarding the stimulus package in the USA, macroeconomic data and the news flow regarding the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) outbreak are being followed, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes and the intensifying data agenda are on the agenda of the week of February 15. has an interest rate decision.

This week, while the number of cases in the Kovid-19 epidemic exceeded 108 million worldwide, despite the positive news flow regarding the stimulus package in the USA, data generating mixed signals regarding economic activity and concerns that restrictions could be increased in Europe, the upward movements in global share markets.

With the ongoing statements of the authorities emphasizing the need for continuation of financial support on a global scale, the US 10-year bond yields moved their upward trend to the second week and reached the highest level since 20 March 2020 with 1.20 percent.

After the electric car manufacturer Tesla announced to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it has invested its $ 1.5 billion in Bitcoin and plans to accept Bitcoin as a payment type soon, developments on the issue have also come to the fore. After the announcement, Bitcoin’s price broke a record at $ 48,950.

While the price of Brent oil rose to the highest level since the week of January 20, 2020 with $ 62.5, one of the prominent pricing of the week, analysts said that the constraints of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC group, which consists of some non-OPEC producer countries, in the oil supply and the economy. He stated that recovery expectations were effective in the said pricing.

RECORDS BREAKED ALTHOUGH RISE SPEED DECREASED IN NEW YORK EXCHANGE

While the positive news flow regarding the stimulus package, which is at the center of the agenda of the markets, continued, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s statements that the economy could reach full employment next year if the stimulus package was implemented, increased the expectations for a rapid recovery in the economy.

On the other hand, President of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi stated that she is waiting for the economic support package to be approved before the unemployment programs expire.

“We are still far from a strong labor market, despite the surprising pace of recovery in the early period,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told the labor market in a speech during the week. used the expression. Signaling that the supportive monetary policy will continue, Powell emphasized that the withdrawal of policy support should not be considered until the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic is over.

Data released this week in the US, on the other hand, showed a mixed outlook. In the US, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) followed a course in line with the expectations in January and increased by 0.3 percent monthly. Although the number of applicants for unemployment benefits decreased to 793 thousand in the week ending February 6, it was above the market expectations and the levels before the epidemic.

Reports that the Democrats are planning to allocate $ 14 billion to support airline companies caused the shares of airline companies to watch with buyers.

The Dow Jones index gained 1 percent, the S&P 500 index 1.23 percent and the Nasdaq index 1.73 percent in the New York stock market, which maintained its upward trend with these developments, thus achieving the highest weekly closing of all three indices.

In the data calendar of the week starting with February 15, the New York Fed industry index to be published on Tuesday, the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday, industrial production, capacity utilization rate, retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI), Thursday house sales, On Friday, the heavy data agenda, especially the manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, will be followed. Markets in the US will be on Monday due to a holiday.

A MIXED TRAVEL WATCHED ON EUROPEAN EXCHANGES

On the European side, news that the negotiations initiated by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to form a consensus government in Italy supported the share markets, but the news that the risk of mutation in the Kovid-19 epidemic and the measures taken could be extended regionally, the upward movements were removed.

With the impact of the financial results of the company, stock and sector-based movements became evident in the stock markets.

According to data from the British Office for National Statistics, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to be 0.5 percent in the last quarter of 2020.
increased by 1 percent. The UK economy, which shrank by 9.9 percent in the whole of 2020, recorded the sharpest contraction since 1709, when extreme cold and frost were seen across Europe.

In Germany, the CPI rose to 1 percent in January compared to the same month of 2020, within expectations. Inflation also increased by 0.8 percent on a monthly basis in January.

In Germany, where industrial production has not changed in the range, the rise in industrial production that has been going on since May 2020 has ended.

With these developments, after the Euro / dollar parity increased in the first four days of the week, the parity, which regressed slightly on the last trading day, completed the week at 1.2120 with an increase of 0.6 percent. On a weekly basis, the DAX index lost 0.05 percent in Germany, while the FTSE 100 index gained 1.55 percent in the UK, the CAC 40 index in France 0.78 percent and the MIB 30 index in Italy 1.42 percent.

Next week, foreign trade balance in the Eurozone, Tuesday growth and ZEW indices in Germany, CPI in England on Wednesday, CPI and consumer confidence index in the Eurozone on Thursday, and manufacturing industry and service sector PMI data across Europe will be followed on Friday.

HOLIDAY IN CHINA CONTINUES

In the Asian stock markets, although there were no transactions in many countries in the second half of the week, there was a trend with buyers in parallel with the positive news about the stimulus package in the USA.

While the balance of payments announced in Japan during the week came better than the expectations with 1 trillion 166 billion yen surplus in December, PPI decreased by 1.6 percent in January, in line with the estimates. While the CPI in China decreased by 0.3 percent in January, the unemployment rate in South Korea reached its highest level since 1999 with 5.4 percent.

With these developments, this week, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 2.57 percent, the Shanghai composite index rose 4.54 percent in China, while the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 0.6 percent.

Next week, growth, industrial production and capacity utilization rate in Japan will be followed on Monday, and CPI data on Friday. However, due to the holidays, Chinese stock markets will be closed on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

TURKISH LIRA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN

Domestic, BIST 100 index followed a mixed trend parallel to global markets, while the dollar / TL, which continued its downward trend, moved within the range of 7.0088-7.1401.

Turkey Statistics Institute (TSI) last year, the range calendar adjusted industrial production rose 9 percent compared to the same month of 2019, according to data announced. There was an annual increase of 12.1 percent in the unadjusted industrial production index.

Analysts noted that industrial production performed well during the second wave of the Kovid-19 outbreak, and that the growth expectations for 2020 will be revised up after the data.

According to CBRT data, the current account had a deficit of 3 billion 210 million dollars in December last year. Thus, the current account deficit in 2020 was 36 billion 724 million dollars. The unemployment rate rose to 12.9 percent in November. With these developments, the dollar / TL, which saw the lowest level of the last 6 months with 7.0088 during the week, closed at 7.0289 with a 0.4 percent loss on a weekly basis after declining for the fourth week in a row.

BIST 100 index, on the other hand, gained 0.74 percent on a weekly basis and closed at 1.538.44 points. Due to the announced company financial results, it was observed that stock and sector-based mobility in the stock market increased.

DOMESTIC, AT THE CENTRAL BANK OF EYES

Analysts stated that the 1.550-1.570 band has become an important resistance zone in the BIST 100 index technically, and the 1.525 and 1.505 levels stand out as support.

While the CBRT’s interest rate decision will be the focus of investors on Thursday, the majority of economists who participated in the AA Finans’ expectation survey estimate that the policy rate of 17 percent will be left unchanged.

However, analysts pointed out that a very strong communication language was used in the decision text in January, and stated that possible changes in the decision text were in the focus of investors.

In the text of the decision released after the meeting in January, instructions such as “the tight monetary policy stance will be maintained for a long time, taking into account the inflation forecast target for 2021” and “additional monetary tightening will be made if necessary” had found a positive response in the markets.

During the week of February 15, the financial results of the companies will be monitored throughout the week together with the budget balance and housing sales on Monday, the housing price index on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index on Thursday and the credit rating report of the international credit rating agency Fitch on Friday.


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Source: bigpara- GÜNDEM by bigpara.hurriyet.com.tr.

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