With an average reliability of 96 percent, The work indicates that the number of deaths in all Spain by Covid-19, in view of the level of infection and the current mortality rate, could increaser nearly 30 percent going from 1,515 deaths in the last 14 days to 1,995 in the next two weeks.
Likewise, 43 percent of the deaths from Covid-19 predicted by ‘COVIDModel.es’ correspond to the Community of Madrid, where the model predicts more than 850 deaths from Covid-19 for the next two weeks. Together with the Community of Madrid, La Rioja, Aragon, Castilla La Mancha and the Basque Country are the Autonomous Communities with the highest levels of deaths per million inhabitants.
These figures are directly related to the level of hospital occupancy in each of these regions. And it is that, the Community of Madrid currently has occupied more than 38 percent of the beds in the Intensive Care Units (ICU) and more than 40 percent in La Rioja. In the same way, it can be seen, with data as of September 24, that Aragón has occupied 31 percent, Castilla-La Mancha 23 percent and the Basque Country 21 percent of the beds in the ICU.
The mathematical model ‘COVIDModel.es’ starts in its analysis of the death figures obtained from the Mortality Monitoring (MoMo). This system shows an excess of 1,517 deaths in the last two weeks in Spain. More than 40 percent higher than the death figures from Covid-19 published by the Ministry of Health.
Make your predictions based on mortality rates calculated from Momo deaths and PCR infections and the observed delay of 22 days, on average, between the time of infection and death, if it occurs. To find out, therefore, deaths within 22 days simply multiply those infected today by the death rate.
‘COVIDModel.es’ treats these deaths as “sentenced deaths” as they are not avoidable with the confinement measures that can be taken today to limit contact between people. Today’s decisions affect deaths within 22 days. “Although there are disparities between the prediction and reality in some moments, these differences tend to be compensated when the analysis is done at 14 days,” Serrano explained. These specific disparities are due to the fact that the Ministry of Health does not offer data on infected people on weekends and ‘COVIDModel.es’ can only estimate them based on the trend of the curve.
Source: Telecinco – Noticias de última hora, realities y series by www.telecinco.es.
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