[북한정론] Korean Peninsula Scenario: Kim Jong-un-Trump Dancing Together Again?

While Kim Jong-un has recently drastically lowered the threshold for nuclear use through the “enactment of nuclear policy,” the level of tension in the region is further heightening as North Korea’s successive test launch of improved ballistic missiles and the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise in which aircraft carriers participate are intertwined. Meanwhile, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in a report (9.28) to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, “If North Korea conducts its 7th nuclear test, there is a possibility that it will be between the 16th of next month and the 7th of November.”

Accordingly, curiosity about the future scenario of the Korean Peninsula is increasing. On September 26, at the invitation of the Seoul Foreign Correspondents’ Club (SFCC), the author presented ‘Kim Jong-un’s nuclear policy and prospects for inter-Korean relations’ and had a question-and-answer session.

The points emphasized on the day were ▲Let’s not approach the North Korean nuclear issue from a short-term or event perspective ▲Kim Jong-un’s grand strategy and a fundamental evaluation of the nuclear strategy are more important than anything else ▲The future inter-Korean relations will be “strong and strong” for a long time, contrary to our wishes It is highly probable that ‘a phase of change will begin around 2024’ after passing through the it was

Today, I would like to share the core contents with the readers as such a talking point will be helpful in predicting the political and diplomatic weather map surrounding the Korean Peninsula as well as the internal situation in North Korea in the future.

Kwak Gil-seop, CEO of One Korea Center, is presenting ‘Kim Jong-un’s nuclear policy and prospects for inter-Korean relations’ at the invitation of the Seoul Foreign Correspondents’ Club (SFCC) on the 26th. /Photo = Seoul Foreign Correspondents Club (SFCC)

Changes in Kim Jong-un’s nuclear policy

Kim Jong-un’s nuclear strategy has undergone three major changes. The first phase is the ‘all-in-one period for nuclear development’. Until November 29, 2017, he test-fired the ICBM-class Hwasong-15 targeting the US mainland and declared the completion of the national nuclear force. The second phase is the ‘parallel phase of upgrading nuclear capabilities and negotiating’. After the denuclearization negotiations represented by the ‘Spring of Peace on the Korean Peninsula’ in 2018 and the breakdown of the US-DPRK summit in Hanoi in February 2019, it was a period of upgrading nuclear capabilities in quality and quantity through head-on breakthrough and various provocations.

The third phase is the ‘nuclear non-refusal period and the threat of a preemptive nuclear attack’. Recently, on the 2nd day (9.8) of the 7th session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly, the adoption of the Act on the Policy of Nuclear Force of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (preamble, 11 paragraphs) and Kim Jong-un’s corrective speech, declared non-nuclearization and raised the possibility of a preemptive strike. The threat is the turning point.

Nuclear preemptive strike based on arbitrary judgment

North Korea’s enactment and promulgation of its ultra-hard nuclear policy as a statute can be said to have three key goals: 1) to establish the status of a nuclear-weapon state, 2) to secure a foundation for mutually equal disarmament talks in future negotiations, and 3) to warn of provocation of nuclear war in case of emergency.

This is a kind of ‘preemptive nuclear attack doctrine’, which threatens the fact that nuclear weapons can be used for a preemptive strike beyond the safety plate (defense) of the regime, and is a foundation for securing in advance a bridgehead for disarmament talks and unification of the Korean Peninsula in the US.

The biggest problem is the 5. The first goal of nuclear weapons is to deter war and defend, but if the system is threatened, it will be used as a means of attack in self-defense, but it is too comprehensive and arbitrary. In particular, Article 6 (5) inserts the term ‘others’ and states, “In the event that a catastrophic crisis occurs to the existence of a state and the life safety of the people, an unavoidable situation is created that has no choice but to respond with nuclear weapons.” It allowed Kim Jong-un to interpret the situation arbitrarily.

Again ‘2024 dance with trump

For the time being, Kim Jong-un is expected to seek the timing of strategic provocations such as ICBM and satellite launches and the 7th nuclear test under the pretext of the peaceful use of space under the principle of “strong river”. The recent ballistic missile test launch (9.25/28) is also a move to advance the nuclear power operation system and imprint their firm stance inside and outside the country.

From this perspective, we should pay attention to the time from October 16 (Xi Jinping’s third consecutive term at the 20th Party Congress in China) to November 8 (US midterm elections), which the National Intelligence Service paid attention to until the second half of this year. Meanwhile, since force majeure variables such as the U.S.-China hegemony competition, Corona 19, and the Ukraine crisis will continue to affect the Korean Peninsula, the ‘strong river’ phase is expected to continue through North Korea’s strategic provocation and strengthening the North Korea-China-Russia trilateral alliance.

Therefore, for the time being, the so-called ‘muddling through’ strategy for upgrading nuclear capabilities and overcoming the sanctions and quarantine crisis will become a necessity, not an option. However, starting in 2024, when the US presidential campaign begins, it is highly likely that the company will carefully seek to create conditions for disarmament talks and a big deal under the ‘Dance with Again Trump’ keynote.

In other words, North Korea is waiting for the re-emergence of Trump with the right chemistry under the judgment that there is little possibility of compromise with the Biden-Yun Seok-yeol administration, which values ​​values, principles, and procedures. It is expected to focus on pro-North Korea of ​​7.5 million overseas Koreans and 3) the rift in the trilateral coordination between Korea, the US and Japan through the resumption of North Korea-Japan dialogue.

Such a move has already been ▲created a ‘war versus peace’ frame by propaganda media including Kim Jong-un ▲Song Il-ho, former negotiator with Japan, and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida’s response (Sep. Adoption of the Advocacy Act (2022.2), etc. Overseas compatriots working all over the world are very valuable as a route for spreading North Korea’s propaganda logic, tourism and investment resources, and operations against South Korea.

The Workers’ Party of Korea strengthens the united front with the patriotic democratic forces of all Joseon, of overseas compatriots defending and guaranteeing democratic national rights and interests, and firmly binding them under the banner of patriotism, Arouse national pride and patriotic enthusiasm to actively take the path for the unification and development of the country and prosperous prosperity.(2021.1 revision 8Second Party Convention Party Bylaws)

In order to achieve the goal of building a nuclear-weapon socialist powerhouse and reunification of the entire Korean Peninsula, along with these efforts, North Korea took into consideration the 9th and 10th Party Congresses (2026/2031), and the period of government change between the United States and the Republic of Korea, as well as economic and defense development. It is expected that the five-year plan, various levels of dialogue and negotiations, and unified front tactics will be pursued in three dimensions.

Once again, North Korea’s nuclear policy is being strictly implemented based on Kim Jong-un’s grand strategy. Comprehensively considering the Party Rules, the Ten Principles of the One-Leading System, and various internal and external policies, Kim Jong-un’s grand strategy consists of three main strategies: (1) establishing a foundation for the Kim family to rule permanently, (2) building a socialist powerhouse, and (3) communist unification of the entire Korean peninsula. The hardware that supports this is nuclear and missile, and the software means to remodel North Korean society.

Compressed visualization of North Korea’s expected scenarios and actions in the future. /Photo = Provided by Kwak Gil-seop, CEO of One Korea Center

3Pillar/4DArgumentshould respond with

Therefore, the government should establish and implement short-term, mid-to-long-term measures that comprehensively take into account the re-priority of policies and the political schedules of the two Koreas and neighboring countries, while strengthening information-gathering activities on North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities and strategic provocations.

To this end, it is important to carefully review Kim Jong-un’s grand strategy and possible changes in the US situation (regime change, dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear weapons → management policy, etc.). ▲After that, along with structural variables such as the US-China hegemony competition and Corona 19 ▲ Short-term variables such as China’s 20th Party Congress in mid-October and the US midterm elections in November, as well as the 2024 general election of the Republic of Korea and the US presidential campaign, and the North Korean economy and mid- to long-term variables such as the five-year national defense development plan should be considered from various angles.

In this process, North Korea’s representative for diplomatic relations with Japan, Song Il-ho, delivered a statement on the 20th anniversary of the North Korea-Japan-Pyongyang Declaration (September 15), Japanese Prime Minister Kishida’s re-expression of his “will to meet Kim Jong-un unconditionally” (September 20), and a North Korean insider’s ” It is also worth paying attention to the meaning of messages such as the statement that the enactment of this nuclear policy has the same effect as having carried out a hydrogen bomb test 10 times” (North Korea’s internal training data. September 20, 2022 Daily NK).

More fundamentally, the government should not stick to the first pillar of ‘dialogue and negotiations’ to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. From now on, we must approach the North Korean issue, not the North Korean nuclear issue. Now is the time for strategic tactics to neutralize North Korea’s nuclear weapons. To this end, ‘strengthening national defense’ (the second pillar) and ‘normalizing the North Korean system’ (the third pillar) must be implemented three-dimensionally from a long-term perspective.

After announcing the Yun Seok-yeol administration’s North Korea policy (‘Bold Initiative’), the presidential office has presented three concepts as detailed tactics: Dialogue, Deterrence, and Dissuasion. However, if democratization is not included to fundamentally change the North Korean system, there is a high possibility that it will be ‘looking at the roof of a dog chasing chickens’ like the previous government. Therefore, the government will have to expand the concept beyond 3D to ‘4D or 3D in broad sense’.

In particular, ‘repression’ should not be dealt with only by setting long-term goals and gradual implementation. What can be done right now should be implemented immediately. Only then can we unite the people and show our strong will to North Korea and the international community.

Measures such as the establishment of a joint public-private-military committee for North Korean nuclear response, planning and implementation of the Korean version of the Strategic Report (roadmap) benchmarking the US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), review of policy priorities, and immediate readjustment of manpower and budget are necessary. In particular, in relation to North Korea’s immediate 7th nuclear test, countermeasures such as raising the level of sanctions against North Korea, strengthening the U.S.’s extended deterrence, and disqualifying the United Nations membership should be preemptively reviewed and announced in cooperation with allies to control North Korea’s provocative movements. something to do.

A nation that has forgotten its history has no future. It is now in a crisis phase. Keep in mind that now is the time for action, not wording, to matter.

Yubi-mu-hwan – National theory integration – Main action – Red water Thousand Stones!

*The external author’s column may not match the editorial direction of this magazine.

Source: DailyNK by www.dailynk.com.

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