[북한정론] Kim Jong-un’s reverse run revealed at the party conference, what is the future?

North Korea’s 8th Party Congress (1.5-12), which had been held from the beginning of the New Year, ended with the eight-day schedule and ended as’Anyway’.

The key keyword of this party conference was the nuclear and head-on breakthrough.

The hopeful observations of many experts that “North Korea may deliver a forward-looking message to South Korea or the United States” were beautifully missed. For Kim Jong-un, such things as the Corona 19 pandemic, intensifying economic hardship due to prolonged sanctions against North Korea, and the launch of the new administration of Biden in the US were not important factors to consider. As a dictator and fighter, he chose to run in reverse rather than an appeasing gesture or change.

It is as if the number of final matches of a boxer driven by the defensive force is reminiscent. It is similar to the appearance of giving up a large space of the ring to overturn the game with a counter-punch of a single shot, raising a lot of guards, and trying to lean on the body in a corner. Can Bae Bae Jin succeed?

Economic failure

Through his opening remarks, Kim Jong-un defined the current situation as “the worst of the worst and lasting difficulties that I have ever had” and honestly admitted to the failure of the Five-Year Economic Development Plan (2016-2020). He emphasized that “the trick to break through the existing concubine difficulties most reliably and fastest is to strengthen our own strength and subjective ability to a full extent.”

Each sector ‘Frontal breakthrough 2.0 propel’ will

Following the three-day business summary report, ▲ unfolding a frontal breakthrough war based on self-reliance ▲ demonstrating the achievement of the nuclear-missile powerhouse goal and willingness to continue to advance ▲ Han Fumi Good (Korean pressure, confrontation of the US) Emphasized.

In particular, referring to the word nuclear 36 times, it is the first to formulate the development of a hypersonic weapon capable of disabling nuclear propulsion submarines and air defense networks, and that it will continue to develop and test technologies such as miniaturization of multiple warhead missiles (MIRV) and re-entry technology. Formulated.

Along with this, it also suggested the possibility of restoring inter-Korean relations, saying, “We can return to the spring day three years ago in the near future, depending on the attitude of the South Korean authorities.” However, it has imposed difficult prerequisites, such as bringing in advanced military equipment and halting joint military exercises.

It took a high level of tactical action to leave open room for dialogue in South Korea while strongly pressing on the US to “respond to the strong and pre-emptive elections” and “withdrawal of the North Korean hostile dash policy.” It can be said to be a kind of taming the Moon Jae-in government, securing an escape route in case of emergency, and inter-Korean policy.

‘Nuclear-based war(all) Unification of the Korean Peninsula’ Strategies are stipulated in the Party Code

At the 5th meeting, the Party Code, which is the bible for system operation, was revised. In the most important preface, first, Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-ilism and Kim Jong-un’s mass-firstism were described in a more political way, emphasizing the legitimacy of the three successive regimes. Second, an attempt was made to expand the foundation for the unified front business by inserting expressions related to overseas Koreans. Third, in the task part of the struggle for reunification of the motherland, the phrase “guaranteeing the eternal and peaceful environment of the Korean peninsula (Korean peninsula) based on national defense power and advancing the historical feat of reunification of the motherland” was added. It was more blatant.

In short, it is a move to further strengthen the domestic, overseas, and South Korean base beyond the succession of Yu Hoon, the existing strategic tactics for communism and unification of the Korean Peninsula.

Among the reorganizations of other detailed chapters, ▲ stipulates that the basic strategic route can be changed at any time (so that the party congress can be convened if it is notified several months in advance) ▲ reinforcement of the powers of the Political Bureau’s Standing Committee (a kind of division of roles and responsibility) ▲ Party Central Prosecutors’ Committee Reinforcement of authority (all affairs auditing beyond finance / our audit remote) ▲ The main feature is that the Political Affairs Bureau returned to the former secretary system.

First floor of Kim Jong-un’s parental system

① Kim Jong-un elected as party chairman → party general secretary

At the 6th day’s meeting, the fact that Kim Jong-un was appointed as the party general secretary is most noticeable. The reason that North Korea changed the title of Kim Jong-un from the chairman of the party to the party general secretary of the past Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il era ▲to put him in the same rank as the predecessors ▲that the party general secretary is the title meaning the highest head of the communist state ▲and the party chairman It is evaluated as a measure taking into account the mediocrity of the title (name of the person in charge of various organizations).

② Kim Yeo-Jung-eun retained his existing role despite the decline in position

One of the characteristics is that Kim Yeo-jeong was omitted from the list of candidates for the Party Political Bureau. However, it must be distinguished from relegation. As part of the party congress (39 members), Kim Jong-un sat in the chairmanship right after Kim Jong-un in the conference, and it is still 21st on the list of the newly elected Party Central Committee, and we must not forget Kim Jong-un’s differentiated status as an emotional-political partner.

This fact is evidenced by the fact that Kim Yeo-jeong revealed his sense of presence through a condemnation talk to South Korea on the 12th. Although he was omitted from the list of candidates for the Political Bureau, the title was also lowered from the first vice-president to vice-president at the time of this talk, but it suggests that he is still in charge of the South Korean project (including the US issues).

In summary, “Kim Yeo-jeong’s power has not changed. It is presumed that it is likely that the person’s position was externally reduced (consultation with Kim Jong-un). This is because Kim Yeo-jeong, who painted the concept of the 8th Party Congress (the Party Congress is a meeting that accounts for the last five years), retreats from the South-Korea line, which is responsible for the Hanoi diplomatic disaster in February 2019. It would be reasonable to evaluate that the intention was to expand Kim Jong-un’s range of luck by showing himself taking responsibility in the process of abolishing the office of South Korea-international secretary/delegating Kim Young-cheol, Choi Sun-hee, etc.).

In the future, Kim Yeo Jeong-un will continue to play the role of Libero, such as Kim Jong-un’s shadow and mouth, in important issues such as personnel, inter-Korean relations, and diplomacy with the United States. The possibility of taking the state post at the Supreme People’s Assembly to be held on January 17 cannot be excluded. This is because some are promising that North Korea will create an organization similar to our National Security Council (NSC).

③ Entrepreneurship and strengthening the party advantage system

The organization and personnel reorganization of Kim Jong-un was drastically carried out through this conference. ▲ It is noteworthy that Cho Yong-won, who performed Kim Jong-un as a shadow, was selected as the first vice-president of the party organization leadership as a standing committee member and party secretary (estimated in charge of the organization). He climbed vertically to third place after Choi Ryong-hae. This is a trend that symbolizes a stronger party dominance system. ▲ In the ranks of the Party Central Committee, military figures such as Chief of Staff Park Jeong-cheon and Kim Jong-gwan are outside the top 100. It can be said that Kim Jong-un’s party dominance state operation (the military of the party) was clearly done. ▲ Park Bong-ju, a member of the Party Political Bureau, also retired. In the future, Prime Minister Kim Jae-hoon is expected to lead the way in the future. ▲ Institutionalization of discipline through strengthening the authority of the Party Central Prosecutors Committee (existing finances, granting project evaluation and inspection rights, and remote auditing) cannot be excluded. This year, the situation in North Korea and the purging winds are expected to sway strongly.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the keyword of the 8th Party Congress can be called’reverse driving’.

The consistent message penetrating through Kim Jong-un’s speech and the revised Party Code is Season 2 of the head-on breakthrough of’Nuclear-based self-reliance and reunification.’ Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il’s’victory in the struggle against anti-imperialism, national reunification’ is by Yu Hoon-cheol.

North Korea’s basic strategic route in the future can be summarized as a global war posture based on North Korean socialist principles and pressure on South Korea and the United States through strengthening nuclear power.

“new 5Participation in restoring and strengthening the system and order that moves the economy under the unified command and management of the state during the annual planning period., National power must be put in” “We must do everything we can to build the strongest military power while further strengthening our nuclear war deterrent.”(1.12 Kim Jong-un closed company)

Current issues such as the New Economic Development Five-Year Plan, which were discussed and decided this time, will go through a final approval process at the Supreme People’s Assembly, which was announced on the 17th. With this, it is expected that North Korea will complete the regime reform before the inauguration of the US Biden government on the 20th.

However, Kim Jong-un’s strategic tactics are, in a word, anachronistic.

In the face of global pandemic, national interest competition, and sanctions against North Korea, the contradictions in each sector of the economy and society, such as energy and nuclear disasters, will worsen. The demand for the level of de facto disarmament and the abolition of the ROK-US alliance to the Korean government was a one-sided deterrence that did not take into account the geopolitical environment of the Korean peninsula surrounded by powerful countries such as China, Russia and Japan.

In particular, it is highly likely that it would be a mistake among the mistakes to set the first task of diplomatic activities beyond the reaffirmation of the status of a nuclear powerhouse and to overpower the United States, and to explicitly express the will to develop state-of-the-art weapons such as nuclear submarines. The response of the upcoming Biden administration is evident.

Anyway, now the ball has passed back to Korea and the United States.

Desirable direction of government response

On the 12th, after the 8th party congress, Kim Yeo-jeong again announced a discourse that criticized the Korean government again. Taking the issue of our military’s reconnaissance activities against the North Korean Fever Sik, he wrote violent expressions such as “special nerd” and “what should be calculated.” In the meantime, since we have been guilty of mistaking our habits, we should not get excited and respond rationally. Anyway, in the future, North Korea is expected to continue to lead such a tense phase until the position of the ROK-US and the ROK-US on joint military exercises in March, which pressed the current government to stop, is decided.

The security reality surrounding us is becoming more severe. In this case, the government must respond accurately to Kim Jong-un’s last-minute offensive without panic. It is not a good idea to be patient and cry out for cooperation. You have to tell what you will be proud of to North Korea. Above all, we must coordinate closely with the upcoming US Biden government and then respond.

However, the remarks of the government and ruling party, including the Ministry of Unification, are unusual. There are no words of concern or criticism about North Korea’s increase in nuclear armament even after washing his eyes. It is only dialogue and peace. It feels like people living in another country.

“Our will to implement the inter-Korean agreement is firm.. Denuclearization and peace settlement on the Korean Peninsula, The government’s position on pursuing the development of inter-Korean relations is consistent.“(1.9 Spokesman for the Ministry of Unification), ”North Korea seems to be putting emphasis on dialogue.“(1.10 Nak-yeon Lee, Representative of the Democratic Party), ”It is highly likely that Kim Jong-un will return this summer.“(1.11 Democratic Party Congressman Seol Hoon,) “when, Our will to meet anywhere and to communicate in a non-face-to-face manner remains unchanged.(1.11 President Moon Jae-in)

I can’t help but worry. Please don’t look at what you want to see, you have to face reality. You have to wake up from your dreams. This is because security is not an object of experimentation. I know the hope of establishing a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula as soon as possible by resuming inter-Korean exchange and cooperation. But the other person is thinking completely differently. It is not dialogue or cooperation, but ▲ blatant violence and threats ▲ telling us to give up independent defense and separate from the United States ▲ kneeling down and obeying to give a little look.

The government’s cool and wise response is more needed than ever.

As with the feverish ceremony on the day of the establishment of the party in October last year, North Korea’s nuclear-missiles and other state-of-the-art weapons should not be overlooked and over-emphasized the meaning of Kim Jong-un’s “greeting to South Koreans”. Anti-rational and anti-national behavior such as the’Prohibition against North Korean Warfare Spraying Act’ (the so-called Kim Yeo-jung Ha Myung-beop) should not be reproduced. North Korea is not the only important thing to us. It is also important to cope with threats from neighboring countries such as China, and to strengthen self-defense and redeem OPCON (though I think it is too early).

The ROK-US joint military training scheduled for March is likely to become an important test platform between the two Koreas. Because ▲How to respond to North Korea’s compulsions and threats ▲How to stick the first button with the biden government, which values ​​alliance, will govern the overall inter-Korean-Korean relations, including whether or not we should live with nuclear weapons overhead. This is because it will be a touchstone.

I am calling on the government to restore inter-Korean relations.

It should not be approached with a short-term and ad-hoc attitude, including the March-Korea joint military training. I hope you will respond with a long perspective, thinking of the word “mountain over mountain”. Numerous breakdowns of inter-Korean agreements, especially the brutal and dualistic behavior that North Korea has shown over the past two years since the ‘spring of the Korean peninsula’ in 2018, and the futility of event-oriented inter-Korean relations must be considered. North Korea did not stop developing nuclear-missiles even during dialogue and exchange and cooperation. He criticized our president with words that he couldn’t put into his mouth, such as a’stupid idiot’. Tens of billions of national blood taxes were charged and the Gaeseong inter-Korean liaison office was blown up. He committed a brutality of shooting and incinerating a drifting maritime official. Eventually, with this 8th Party Congress as an opportunity, the word for unification toward South Korea based on nuclear weapons was even stipulated in the Party Code.

Kim Jong-un shouted the nuclear program 36 times in the report on the business summary, and never mentioned the word denuclearization. You should not forget all this and run into Kim Jong-un’s arms as if nothing had happened. What you pay for must pay for it. Exchange is good, but you have to take care of security first. Only then will the lives of the free Republic of Korea and the people be safe. Kim Jong-un’s goal, unwavering grand strategy, is not the path to complete denuclearization or reform and opening up. This is the tactic of Yang Su-gyeom-jang (兩手兼將) to try to lift sanctions against North Korea with nuclear weapons.

Therefore, the Korean government must deal with it with a bigger picture and strategic tactics.

Our time table is important, not North Korea’s timetable. And we need to make the nucleus that Kim Jong-un so attached to is useless. For that to happen, coordination with Northeast Asia-North Korea policy of the newly launched Biden government is more important than exchange and cooperation with North Korea. A comprehensive agreement on a roadmap including the concept of denuclearization must be drawn. If you get ahead of your motivation, you can only deepen the goal of conflict with the new administration of Biden in the United States. With the heart that our government has endured in North Korea’s grievances for the past two years, we must take a little more time to deal with North Korea.

In the long term and fundamentally, we must go beyond demanding and persuading North Korea to go silently on . It is imperative to ask North Korea for any demands such as a nuclear freeze and a comprehensive denuclearization agreement, and if there is any support, it should proceed from a pure humanitarian level without any conditions. As a Korean people, a sovereign state, and a party, this is a natural act. Being a mediator or facilitator shouldn’t be a step out of the way, use it as a string of conversation, or just be patient. Rather, we must focus our efforts on building a rich and free Korea. Then, naturally ▲values ​​and abundance flow into North Korea, ▲the North Korean society begins to change from below ▲South and North Korea will gradually become a single economic, social and cultural community. As such, inter-Korean exchange and cooperation should be promoted, but it should not be forcibly tied up. When we build a strong security posture and turn our eyes to a wider world and future, there is a future for Korea and peace on the Korean Peninsula.

*The external author’s column may not match the editorial direction of this magazine.